2026 predictions: From data sovereignty to quantum security

This article was originally published as part of the 18th annual VMblog predictions series.

AI has transformed the technology ecosystem over the past year, pushing networks to become faster, more agile and more scalable to support these workloads. In parallel, many operators are working to integrate AI into their own operations, from predictive maintenance to customer service chatbots, to keep pace with the escalating scale of modern infrastructure.

Given their inherent complexity, technological evolutions are always difficult to predict. Despite this uncertainty, operators can prepare for tomorrow’s demands by understanding market conditions and technological requirements throughout the ecosystem. With these shifts, there are a few key trends that may rise in importance as AI applications proliferate.

More fiber: Build it and they will come

A few larger customers are asking for more and more fiber pairs to support the capacity requirements of AI and cloud applications, with these applications driving value creation across the global business landscape. Now that we’ve reached Shannon’s limit (the amount of capacity that can physically fit on one fiber pair), more construction is needed.

This era requires careful consideration and planning, driving operators to balance their builds with business opportunities and other factors. Operators can now no longer mostly rely on leveraging or revitalizing existing infrastructure.

However, these new builds require massive investment. Meanwhile, every operator wants to win new customers, but they must balance these goals within a hypercompetitive industry, where they risk losing customer opportunities to competitors even if they do build new infrastructure in a high-demand location.

AI data centers are being built in locations with affordable, green power, but these are not normally the places where cables currently exist, which also calls for new cables to be built. Operators will build more in 2026 but must also differentiate themselves from competitors through customer service excellence and other factors, particularly in a saturated market where many providers offer similar solutions.

With some experts proclaiming we’re in an “AI bubble,” similar to the dot-com era of the late 1990s, the current landscape is being shaped by emerging AI neoscalers (with high bandwidth consumption patterns but less predictable longevity) and well-funded hyperscalers.

So, this time around, the “bubble” will include a few household names as well. Together, these groups are driving growth in network capacity needs, creating new business opportunities for operators and additional pressure to expand infrastructure.

Data sovereignty: A sensitive topic

Data sovereignty concerns and discussions have increased substantially over the past year and will only prove more critical as emerging technologies evolve. Data centers started the sovereignty discussion, which is now spilling over onto networks as well, but the data center piece is still important. As AI expands, more training and inference data must traverse global routes, and unlike in the past, traffic can no longer cross borders without increased regulatory scrutiny.

With more data traffic and further AI implementation in government infrastructure, customers want assurance that their data will stay within the digital boundaries of their respective countries. As AI integration deepens and regulations tighten, this concern will become paramount, particularly as Europe strives to catch up to America’s data sovereignty progress.

This will present operators with pressing questions. For example, do you dare build in a country if sovereignty frameworks aren’t settled?

Quantum security: A business imperative

Quantum security has risen as a pressing concern amid mounting cyberattacks and data breaches. I’ve attended recent conferences where experts claim that companies are behind if they aren’t already formulating quantum security strategies and implementation plans. These strategies are particularly urgent in highly sensitive industries like financial services and healthcare that deal with massive volumes of private data traffic.

While implementation of quantum networking is likely to occur after 2030, quantum security methods will likely see earlier integration, enabling companies to safeguard sensitive data traffic amid constantly evolving malicious tactics.

Beyond quantum-safe encryption, certain sectors (especially financial institutions) may revisit architectural models like Managed Optical Fiber Networks (MOFNs). As sovereignty and security concerns rise, more organizations want deterministic, isolated transport paths separate from shared public infrastructure.

As a result, these private network models may see renewed adoption in 2026 as regulatory and security pressures escalate. Time will tell whether they’ll see more enterprise or hyperscaler adoption.

Coming to our senses: More sensing everywhere

Amid geopolitical turmoil and catastrophic weather events, network reliability is becoming even more essential to ensure stable operations. Some (although very few) new subsea cables have advanced sensing capabilities, enabling warnings for tsunamis and related natural disasters. In 2026, the industry may integrate more sensing mechanisms into terrestrial cables.

However, this presents a predicament to internet carriers that own or operate many cables. These capabilities may push defense organizations to ask for more access to sensing data, turning more internet infrastructure into military targets.

If increased sensing comes to fruition, we’ll likely see more operators contending with this quandary and will see increased cooperation between operators and the maritime industry, particularly, as underwater cables are especially vulnerable to sabotage. As an increasingly volatile world makes network reliability even more crucial, we may also see more integration of satellite connectivity options.

While satellites could never replace subsea or land cables, they can offer a back-up option to customers whose businesses rely on high-availability connectivity. This may provide operators with additional opportunities, allowing them to sell more Starlink connectivity and similar services.

The whirlwind continues

With mounting threats to internet infrastructure, the accelerating integration of AI applications and heightened urgency to support their requirements, 2025 has been a whirlwind in the technology ecosystem. Fiber demands, data sovereignty, security concerns and other trends will push operators to build networks with an emphasis on capacity, reach, diversity and other essential qualities.

No matter what 2026 holds, network operators that innovate with a focus on these facets will position themselves to leverage next year’s business opportunities while keeping global communication infrastructure connected, protected and scalable.

Mattias Fridström, Chief Evangelist